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This is a PDF file of an unedited manuscript that has been accepted for publication. As a service to our customers we are providing this early version of the manuscript. The manuscript will undergo copyediting, typesetting, and review of the resulting galley proof before it is published in its final citable form. Please note that during the production(More)
In the neoclassical theory of the firm, actions are taken to maximize the present value of the firm's cash flows-there is no role for managerial attitudes in forming corporate policies. In contrast, our paper provides striking evidence that links psychological traits such as managerial risk aversion, time preference, and optimism to corporate financial(More)
Theoretical models predict asymmetric information in health insurance markets may generate inefficient outcomes due to adverse selection and moral hazard. However, previous empirical research has found it difficult to disentangle adverse selection from moral hazard in health care. We empirically study this question by using data from the Health and(More)
A well-known method of validating econometric models (structural or otherwise) is to examine their performance in out-of-sample prediction. That is, given a change in the policy environment, do the key endogenous variables of the model move in ways that are in some sense " reasonably close " to the model's forecasts? Unfortunately however, as noted by(More)
This paper investigates the impact of spatial zoning restrictions on retail market outcomes. We estimate a structural model of entry, location and format choice across a large number of markets in the presence of zoning restrictions. The paper contributes to the literature in three ways: First, the paper demonstrates that estimates of factors affecting(More)
One reason individuals may engage in risky behaviors like smoking is that they are misinformed about the risks. In this paper we assess the accuracy of risk perceptions of smokers compared to others about future survival, and a range of morbidities and disabilities. Using new and unique data from the Survey on Smoking (SOS) conducted for this research, we(More)
Alessandro Tarozzi, and Curtis Taylor for their guidance and helpful advice. I also thank lunch group participants at Duke University for valuable suggestions. Abstract This paper investigates how subjective mortality expectations and heterogeneity in time and risk preferences affect the consumption and saving behavior of the elderly. Previous studies find(More)
This study examines the relationship between time discounting, other sources of time preference, and choices about smoking. Using a survey fielded for our analysis, we elicit rates of time discount from choices in financial and health domains. We also examine the relationship between other determinants of time preference and smoking status. We find very(More)
This paper tests the rationality of retirement expectations, controlling for sample selection and reporting biases. We find that retirement expectations in the Health and Retirement Study are consistent with the Rational Expectations hypothesis. We also analyze how new information affects the evolution of retirement expectations and discover that, on(More)
We propose a likelihood based method that relies on sequential importance sampling to estimate dynamic discrete games of complete information with serially correlated unobserved state variables. Our method is applicable to similar games that have a Markovian representation of the latent dynamics and an algorithm to solve the game. We apply the method to a(More)