Agus Santoso

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Despite ongoing increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases, the Earth’s global average surface air temperature has remained more or less steady since 2001. A variety of mechanisms have been proposed to account for this slowdown in surface warming. A key component of the global hiatus that has been identified is cool eastern Pacific sea surface temperature,(More)
Interannual rainfall extremes over southwest Western Australia (SWWA) are examined using observations, reanalysis data, and a long-term natural integration of the global coupled climate system. The authors reveal a characteristic dipole pattern of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies during extreme rainfall years, remarkably consistent(More)
The representation of the El Ni~ no–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) under historical forcing and future projections is analyzed in 34 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Most models realistically simulate the observed intensity and location of maximum sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies during ENSO events. However, there(More)
Interannual rainfall variability over Tasmania is examined using observations and reanalysis data. Tasmanian rainfall is dominated by an east–west gradient of mean rainfall and variability. The Pacific–South American mode (PSA), El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the southern annular mode (SAM) each show clear influences on the interannual variability(More)
The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the Earth's most prominent source of interannual climate variability, exerting profound worldwide effects. Despite decades of research, its behaviour continues to challenge scientists. In the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, the anomalously cool sea surface temperatures (SSTs) found during La Niña events and the(More)
The variability of Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) in a long-term natural integration of a coupled climate model is examined. The mean state of the climate model includes a realistic representation of AAIW, which appears centered on the su 5 27.2 kg m23 density surface (hereinafter s27.2) both in observations and the model. An assessment of ventilation(More)
The genesis of mixed layer temperature anomalies across the Indian Ocean are analysed in terms of the underlying heat budget components. Observational data, for which a seasonal budget can be computed, and a climate model output, which provides improved spatial and temporal coverage for longer time scales, are examined. The seasonal climatology of the model(More)
The Pacific and Indian Oceans are connected by an oceanic passage called the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF). In this setting, modes of climate variability over the two oceanic basins interact. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events generate sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) over the Indian Ocean that, in turn, influence ENSO evolution. This raises(More)
Modes of tropical climate variability, such as the El Niño– Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Basinwide Mode (IOBM), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and the Atlantic Equatorial Mode (AEM) (sometimes referred to as the Atlantic Zonal Mode, or Atlantic Niño) interact most readily via the atmosphere. Sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the(More)
849 The impacts of anthropogenic climate change may be felt through changes in modes of natural climatic vari ability. ENSO is the most important year-to-year fluctuation of the climate system on the planet1, varying between anomalously cold (La Niña) and warm (El Niño) condi tions. Underpinning occurrences of ENSO events is the positive feedback between(More)