Adam Kleczkowski

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There is currently considerable interest in the role of nonlinear phenomena in the population dynamics of infectious diseases. Childhood diseases such as measles are particularly well documented dynamically, and have recently been the subject of analyses (of both models and notification data) to establish whether the pattern of epidemics is chaotic. Though(More)
BACKGROUND Existing epidemiological models have largely tended to neglect the impact of individual behaviour on the dynamics of diseases. However, awareness of the presence of illness can cause people to change their behaviour by, for example, staying at home and avoiding social contacts. Such changes can be used to control epidemics but they exact an(More)
Thresholds are derived for the invasion of plant populations by parasites. The theory is developed for a generic model that takes into account two features characteristic of plant-parasite interactions: a dual source of inoculum (infection from primary or externally introduced inoculum and secondary infection from contact between susceptible and infected(More)
SUMMARY Using a combination of replicated microcosm experiments, simple nonlinear modelling and model tting we show that unexpected levels of variability can be detected and described in the dynamics of plant disease. Temporal development of damping{oo disease of radish seedlings caused by an economically important plant pathogen, Rhizoctonia solani, is(More)
Models for control of highly infectious diseases on local, small-world, and scale-free networks are considered, with only partial information accessible about the status of individuals and their connections. We consider a case when individuals can be infectious before showing symptoms and thus before detection. For small to moderately severe incidence of(More)
Models examining the present-day relationship between macro-scale patterns in terrestrial species richness and variables of water and energy demonstrate that a combined water-energy model is a good predictor of richness in mid-to-high latitude regions. However, the power of the individual water and energy variables to explain this richness through time has(More)
The cucumber mosaic virus (CMV) 2b protein not only inhibits anti-viral RNA silencing but also quenches transcriptional responses of plant genes to jasmonic acid, a key signalling molecule in defence against insects. This suggested that it might affect interactions between infected plants and aphids, insects that transmit CMV. We found that infection of(More)
A stochastic model for an epidemic, incorporating susceptible, latent, and infectious states, is developed. The model represents primary and secondary infection rates and a time-varying host susceptibility with applications to a wide range of epidemiological systems. A Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is presented that allows the model to be fitted to(More)
A stochastic model for the dynamics of a plant-pathogen interaction is developed and fitted to observations of the fungal pathogen Rhizoctonia solani (Kühn) in radish (Raphanus sativus L.), in both the presence and absence of the antagonistic fungus Trichoderma viride (Pers ex Gray). The model incorporates parameters for primary and secondary infection(More)
We present a combined epidemiological and economic model for control of diseases spreading on local and small-world networks. The disease is characterized by a pre-symptomatic infectious stage that makes detection and control of cases more difficult. The effectiveness of local (ring-vaccination or culling) and global control strategies is analysed by(More)