Aaron Flores

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In this paper, we develop an experimental analysis to estimate the causal effect of online marketing campaigns as a whole, and not just the media ad design. We analyze the causal effects on user conversion probability. We run experiments based on A/B testing to perform this evaluation. We also estimate the causal effect of the media ad design given this(More)
In this paper, we develop a time series approach, based on Dynamic Linear Models (DLM), to estimate the impact of ad impressions on the daily number of commercial actions when no user tracking is possible. The proposed method uses aggregate data, and hence it is simple to implement without expensive infrastructure. Specifically, we model the impact of daily(More)
We analyze the causal effect of online ads on the conversion probability of the users who click on the ad (clickers). We show that designing a randomized experiment to find this effect is infeasible, and propose a method to find the local effect on the clicker conversions. This method is developed in the Potential Outcomes causal model, via Principal(More)
We perform a randomized experiment to estimate the effects of a display advertising campaign on online user conversions. We present a time series approach using Dynamic Linear Models to decompose the daily aggregated conversions into seasonal and trend components. We attribute the difference between control and study trends to the campaign. We test the(More)
This thesis documents my personal contribution to the development of a hydraulic-based actuation system for a solar trough collector. The goal of this project was to design the actuation system using hydraulic actuators for a four meter solar collector prototype in Pittsfield, New Hampshire. After considering several hydraulic system architectures and(More)
We develop a descriptive method to estimate the impact of ad impressions on commercial actions dynamically without tracking cookies. We analyze 2,885 campaigns for 1,251 products from the Advertising.com ad network. We compare our method with A/B testing for 2 campaigns, and with a public synthetic dataset.
In this paper, we develop a time series approach, based on Dynamic Linear Models (DLM), to estimate the impact of ad impressions on the daily number of commercial actions when no user tracking is possible. The proposed method uses aggregate data, and hence it is simple to implement without expensive infrastructure. Specifically, we model the impact of daily(More)
Date iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS First I would like to thank Cal Poly Tractor Pull Club and Team for their continuous patience and support through this project Second, I would like to thank Dr. Kelly for his patience and guidance through this learning experience Third, I would like to thank Automation Direct, for their technical support department and the help I(More)
This thesis documents Katarina Popovic's contribution to the design of hydraulic cylinder actuation system for day to day solar trough sun tracking, a semester long project within 2.752 Development of Mechanical Products class. The primary goal of this project was to design a robust mechanical system while reducing the complexity and thus overall cost of(More)