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When Is Quarantine a Useful Control Strategy for Emerging Infectious Diseases?
- T. Day, A. Park, N. Madras, A. Gumel, Jianhong Wu
- MedicineAmerican journal of epidemiology
- 18 January 2006
The authors use probabilistic models to determine the conditions under which quarantine is expected to be useful and show that the use of quarantine will be most beneficial when there is significant asymptomatic transmission and if the asymPTomatic period is neither very long nor very short.
Dynamic patterns of avian and human influenza in east and southeast Asia.
Quantifying the Impact of Immune Escape on Transmission Dynamics of Influenza
- A. Park, J. Daly, N. Lewis, Derek J. Smith, J. Wood, B. Grenfell
- Biology, MedicineScience
- 30 October 2009
Modeling equine influenza reveals how epidemics originate in amino acid evolution to escape immunity, and quantifying how key parameters of viral establishment and shedding increase the probability of transmission with genetic distance between previously immunizing virus and challenge virus is quantified.
Extinction times for closed epidemics: the effects of host spatial structure
A stochastic metapopulation model for the transmission of infection in a spatially structured host population and there are three qualitatively different regimes for the extinction time, which depend on patch population size, the within-patch basic reproductive number and the strength of coupling between patches.
The macroecology of infectious diseases: a new perspective on global-scale drivers of pathogen distributions and impacts.
How the perspectives and tools of macroecology, a field that investigates patterns and processes at broad spatial, temporal and taxonomic scales, are expanding scientific understanding of global infectious disease ecology is considered.
Global Mammal Parasite Database version 2.0.
An updated version of the Global Mammal Parasite Database is presented, a database of the parasites of wild ungulates, carnivores, and primates, and it is made available for download as complete flat files.
Spatiotemporal Fluctuations and Triggers of Ebola Virus Spillover
- J. Schmidt, A. Park, A. Kramer, B. Han, Laura W. Alexander, J. Drake
- Environmental ScienceEmerging infectious diseases
- 1 March 2017
A statistical modeling approach that associates 37 human or great ape Ebola spillovers since 1982 with spatiotemporally dynamic covariates including vegetative cover, human population size, and absolute and relative rainfall over 3 decades across sub-Saharan Africa suggests strong seasonality in Ebola spillover from wild reservoirs.
Infectious disease transmission and behavioural allometry in wild mammals.
- B. Han, A. Park, A. Jolles, S. Altizer
- Environmental Science, BiologyThe Journal of animal ecology
- 1 May 2015
This study demonstrates that combining host behavioural traits with dynamical models of infectious disease scaled against host body size can generate testable predictions for variation in parasite risk across species; a similar approach might be useful in future work focused on predicting parasite distributions in local host communities.
Ecological and inhost factors promoting distinct parasite life-history strategies in Lyme borreliosis.
Vector species richness increases haemorrhagic disease prevalence through functional diversity modulating the duration of seasonal transmission
This study demonstrates that vector SR is associated with increased levels of disease reporting, but not via increases in vector abundance or via a sampling effect, and operates by extending the length of seasonal transmission, in line with theoretical predictions.