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Monetary policy rules based on real-time data
In recent years, simple policy rules have received attention as a means to a more transparent and effective monetary policy. Often, however, the analysis is based on unrealistic assumptions about theExpand
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The Quest for Prosperity Without Inflation
In recent years, activist monetary policy rules responding to inflation and the level of economic activity have been advanced as a means of achieving effective output stabilization without inflation.Expand
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The Macroeconomic Consequences of Terrorism
We perform an empirical investigation of the macroeconomic consequences of international terrorism and interactions with alternative forms of collective violence. Our analysis is based on a richExpand
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Robust Monetary Policy Rules with Unknown Natural Rates
We examine the performance and robustness properties of alternative monetary policy rules in the presence of structural change that renders the natural rates of interest and unemployment uncertain.Expand
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The Decline of Activist Stabilization Policy: Natural Rate Misperceptions, Learning, and Expectations
We develop an estimated model of the U.S. economy in which agents form expectations by continually updating their beliefs regarding the behavior of the economy and monetary policy. We explore theExpand
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Monetary Policy Evaluation with Noisy Information
This paper investigates the implications of noisy information regarding the measurement of economic activity for the evaluation of monetary policy. A common implicit assumption in such evaluations isExpand
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Errors in the measurement of the output gap and the design of monetary policy
We exploit data on historical revisions to real-time estimates of the output gap to examine the implications of measurement error for the design of monetary policy, using the Federal Reserve's modelExpand
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Historical Monetary Policy Analysis and the Taylor Rule
This study examines the usefulness of the Taylor-rule famework as an organizing device for describing the policy debate and evolution of monetary policy in the United States. Monetary policy duringExpand
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Rational Addiction with Learning and Regret
We present a theory of rational behavior in which individuals maximize a set of stable preferences over goods with unknown addictive power. The theory is based on three fundamental postulates: thatExpand
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Monetary Policy Rules, Macroeconomic Stability, and Inflation: A View from the Trenches
I estimate a forward-looking monetary policy reaction function for the Federal Reserve for the periods before and after Paul Volcker's appointment as Chairman in 1979, using information that wasExpand
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