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Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England
The rapid spread of VOC 202012/01 suggests that it transmits more efficiently from person to person than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2, which could lead to global surges in COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths, so there is an urgent need to estimate how much more quickly this variant spreads.
Estimated transmissibility and severity of novel SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern 202012/01 in England
The estimates suggest that control measures of a similar stringency to the national lockdown implemented in England in November 2020 are unlikely to reduce the effective reproduction number Rt to less than 1, unless primary schools, secondary schools, and universities are also closed.
Age-dependent effects in the transmission and control of COVID-19 epidemics
It is found that interventions aimed at children might have a relatively small impact on reducing SARS-CoV-2 transmission, particularly if the transmissibility of subclinical infections is low.
Early dynamics of transmission and control of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study
The results show that COVID-19 transmission likely declined in Wuhan during late January 2020, coinciding with the introduction of control measures, and it is likely many chains of transmission will fail to establish initially, but may still cause new outbreaks eventually.
Transmission Dynamics of Zika Virus in Island Populations: A Modelling Analysis of the 2013–14 French Polynesia Outbreak
It would take 12–20 years before there are a sufficient number of susceptible individuals for ZIKV to re-emerge, which is on the same timescale as the circulation of dengue virus serotypes in the region.