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Are Higher Levels of Inflation Less Predictable? A State-Dependent Conditional Heteroscedasticity Approach
Milton Friedman proposed that there is a positive relationship between inflation and uncertainty about the future path of inflation. In contrast to previous studies of this hypothesis, we find strongExpand
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El Nino and World Primary Commodity Prices : Warm Water or Hot Air?
This paper examines the historical effects of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle on world prices and economic activity. The analysis indicates that ENSO has economically-important andExpand
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El NiñO and World Primary Commodity Prices: Warm Water or Hot Air?
This paper examines the historical effects of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle on world prices and economic activity. The analysis indicates that ENSO has economically-important andExpand
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Germany's three-pillar banking system : cross-country perspectives in Europe
This paper takes a cross-country perspective on the performance of German banks and some of the challenges that lie ahead, in addition to reviewing some of the various arguments for and againstExpand
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Conditional Asymmetries in Real GNP: A Seminonparametric Approach
Two critical assumptions are often made in empirical research regarding the relationship between economic variables and economic disturbances—linearity and Gaussianity. Together, these twoExpand
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Plant Phenology in Galleta-Shadscale and Galleta-Sagebrush Associations
Plant phenology is described for plant species in galleta grass (Hilaria jamesii)-shadescale (Atriplex confertffola) and galleta grass-sagebrush (A rtemisia tridentata ssp. wyomingensis) associationsExpand
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The Long-Run Effects of Trade on Income and Income Growth
This paper examines the dynamic relationship between trade and income. While most economists agree that increased trade leads to an increase in average income, economic theory is ambiguous about theExpand
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On the Dynamic Properties of Asymmetric Models of Real GNP
  • A. Brunner
  • Economics
  • Review of Economics and Statistics
  • 1 May 1997
There is now a substantial body of evidence that suggests business cycles are asymmetric. However, the evidence has been accumulated using a wide array of statistical techniques and, consequently, isExpand
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On the Derivation of Monetary Policy Shocks: Should We Throw the VAR Out with the Bath Water?
This paper considers an alternative econometric approach to the standard VAR methodology for identifying and estimating the effects of monetary policy shocks. The alternative approach makes moreExpand
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Potential problems in estimating bilinear time-series models
Abstract We present evidence of undesirable statistical properties of the bilinear model. We show that in certain regions of the parameter space the expected likelihood function exhibits bimodality.Expand
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