• Publications
  • Influence
Is Polarization a Myth?
This article uses data from the American National Election Studies and national exit polls to test Fiorina's assertion that ideological polarization in the American public is a myth. Fiorina arguesExpand
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Explaining Senate Election Outcomes
Aggregate-level data are used in this analysis to explain the outcomes of Senate elections between 1974 and 1986. Using the individual Senate contest as the unit of analysis permits estimating theExpand
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The Disappearing Center: Engaged Citizens, Polarization, and American Democracy
Renowned political scientist Alan I. Abramowitz presents a groundbreaking argument that the most important divide in American politics is not between left and right but rather between citizens whoExpand
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Ideological Realignment in the U.S. Electorate
Using data from the 1976-1994 American National Election Studies and the 1992-94 ANES panel survey, this paper demonstrates that the outcomes of the 1994 and 1996 elections reflected a long-termExpand
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Why Can't We All Just Get Along? The Reality of a Polarized America
According to Morris Fiorina, Americans are moderate, tolerant, and ambivalent in their political attitudes. This has always been true and it is, if anything, more true today than in the past. TheExpand
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Exploring the Bases of Partisanship in the American Electorate: Social Identity vs. Ideology
This article uses data from the 1952-2004 American National Election Studies and the 2004 U.S. National Exit Poll to compare the influence of ideology and membership in social groups on partyExpand
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Incumbency, Campaign Spending, and the Decline of Competition in U.S. House Elections
The 1986 and 1988 U.S. House elections set all-time records for reelection of incumbents. This paper proposes and tests a comprehensive model of House election outcomes and uses this model to explainExpand
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Forecasting the 2008 Presidential Election with the Time-for-Change Model
  • A. Abramowitz
  • Political Science
  • PS: Political Science & Politics
  • 1 October 2008
At first glance, the outcome of the 2008 presidential election would appear to be very difficult to predict. For the first time in over 50 years, there will be no incumbent president or viceExpand
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Incumbency, Redistricting, and the Decline of Competition in U.S. House Elections
Competition in U.S. House elections has been declining for more than 50 years and, based on both incumbent reelection rates and the percentage of close races, the 2002 and 2004 House elections wereExpand
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Viability, Electability, and Candidate Choice in a Presidential Primary Election: A Test of Competing Models
  • A. Abramowitz
  • Political Science
  • The Journal of Politics
  • 1 November 1989
Using data from an exit poll, this paper tests three models of voter decision making in a presidential primary: a simple candidate preference model, a bandwagon model, and an expected utility model.Expand
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